Author: Check Fuel Prices Team

The relentless climb in UK fuel prices has finally paused. After 43 consecutive days of increases, petrol and diesel prices have stopped rising following the temporary ceasefire in the Gulf, according to the RAC.

The news offers the first glimmer of hope for drivers since the Middle East conflict began on February 28 – and prices could start falling within days.

Where Prices Stand Now

• Petrol: 158p per litre – up from 133p before the conflict (25p increase)
• Diesel: 192p per litre – up from 142p before the conflict (50p increase)

The cost of filling a family car has risen dramatically over the past six weeks:

• Petrol: £14 more per tank than late February
• Diesel: £27 more per tank than late February

Prices Could Fall “Within Days”

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: “Wholesale fuel costs are now significantly lower than they were at the start of the month, so forecourt prices should begin to come down.”

He added: “As things stand, we’d expect petrol and diesel to drop by several pence a litre in the next week or so. It will be very interesting to see if this plays out as the data indicates. We hope it does as drivers could do with some relief at the pumps.”

The “Pump-Price Postcode Lottery”

However, not all drivers will see price cuts at the same time. AA president Edmund King warned of a “pump-price postcode lottery” affecting when – and whether – local prices fall.

“If you live in a town with competitive retailers, you may see some movement. If you live somewhere where they all watch each other to see who budges first, you won’t,” he said.

This makes shopping around more important than ever. Stations in competitive areas may cut prices first, while others lag behind.

Why Diesel Rose More Than Petrol

Diesel has increased by 50p per litre compared to petrol’s 25p rise. The RAC explained this disparity:

• Harder to refine – Diesel requires more intensive refining processes than petrol
• Import dependency – The UK imports around half of its diesel from abroad
• Global demand – Diesel demand is exceptionally high worldwide for freight and shipping

Still Below 2022 Peak

While current prices are painful, they remain below the records set following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in summer 2022:

• 2022 petrol peak: 191.5p per litre
• 2022 diesel peak: 199p per litre
• Current petrol: 158p per litre
• Current diesel: 192p per litre

Diesel is now approaching those historic highs, but petrol remains some way below its 2022 peak.

Will Retailers Pass On Savings?

There’s a well-documented concern about “rocket and feather” pricing in the fuel retail sector – prices rocket up when costs rise but float down like a feather when costs fall.

The Competition and Markets Authority found evidence of this practice in late 2022. Since then, the CMA has carried out regular monitoring of forecourt prices, and announced last month that this scrutiny would be intensified in response to surging energy costs.

Drivers and motoring groups will be watching closely to see whether retailers pass on wholesale savings promptly – or drag their feet.

What Caused the Crisis?

The outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that usually carries approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

This closure sent global fuel prices soaring. Crude oil is a key ingredient in petrol and diesel, meaning higher wholesale costs translated directly into more expensive fill-ups for drivers.

The temporary ceasefire has brought crude oil prices down from their recent peaks, and with it the cost of fuel on wholesale markets. Whether this translates into sustained pump price reductions depends on the ceasefire holding.

What Drivers Should Do Now

Shop around aggressively – With some stations likely to cut prices before others, checking prices before every fill-up is essential. Use CheckFuelPrices to find the cheapest fuel near you.

Watch for early movers – Independent forecourts buying fuel on a ‘spot’ basis may reduce prices before larger chains. Regular price checking helps you spot the deals first.

Compare stations in your area – The “postcode lottery” means price cuts will appear unevenly. Stations in competitive areas may move faster than those in less competitive locations.

Don’t assume all prices are falling – Just because wholesale costs have dropped doesn’t mean your local station has cut prices yet. Check before you fill up.

Find the Cheapest Fuel Near You

With prices finally stabilising and potential reductions ahead, now is the time to shop around. Use CheckFuelPrices to compare prices at stations near you.

Our data comes directly from the government’s Fuel Finder Scheme – the same database that lets drivers compare the cost of fuel at petrol stations across the UK, updated within 30 minutes of any price change.

We’ll continue tracking prices daily and report as soon as meaningful reductions appear at the pumps.

Following the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, oil prices have begun to drop. But if you’re expecting cheaper petrol and diesel at the pumps immediately, you may be disappointed.

Here’s why fuel prices rise quickly but fall slowly – and what drivers can realistically expect in the coming weeks.

Where Prices Stand Now

According to the RAC, average UK fuel prices currently stand at:

• Petrol: 157.71p per litre – up 25p (19%) since the conflict began on February 28
• Diesel: 190.62p per litre – up 48p (34%) since February 28

Both fuels are now at their most expensive since late 2022. Filling a 50-litre tank now costs £78.86 for petrol and a staggering £95.31 for diesel.

Why Prices Won’t Fall Immediately

RAC head of policy Simon Williams explained: “The conditional ceasefire announcement may have taken some heat out of global oil prices, but the outlook for drivers in the UK remains highly uncertain.”

He added: “Drivers should not expect significantly cheaper fuel in the short term.”

There are several reasons why pump prices lag behind falling oil costs:

1. Retailers Bought Fuel at Higher Prices

Petrol stations don’t buy fuel in real-time. They purchase stock days or weeks in advance at whatever the wholesale price was at that time. When oil prices spike, they’re selling fuel they bought cheaply – but when prices fall, they’re still selling fuel they bought at peak prices.

Until that expensive stock is sold through and replaced with cheaper fuel, pump prices remain high.

2. Wholesale Prices Need to Fall Sustainably

A brief dip in oil prices isn’t enough. Williams noted: “It is a sustained lower oil price – over several weeks, not just a few days – that is required to bring wholesale fuel costs down meaningfully.”

Retailers and suppliers need confidence that lower prices will hold before they adjust their purchasing and pricing strategies. A ceasefire that could collapse at any moment doesn’t provide that certainty.

3. The Supply Chain Has Multiple Steps

The journey from crude oil to your fuel tank involves multiple stages:

• Crude oil extraction
• Shipping to refineries
• Refining into petrol and diesel
• Distribution to fuel terminals
• Delivery to individual forecourts

Each step involves contracts, logistics, and lead times. A drop in crude oil prices today won’t reach the pumps for days or weeks as it works through the system.

4. The Strait of Hormuz Factor

Even with a ceasefire, the practical challenges remain. Williams highlighted: “Much will depend on the stability of the ceasefire, whether oil shipments can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz, and the longer-term impact on oil production across the Gulf.”

Until shipping routes are fully restored and operating normally, supply constraints will continue to support higher prices.

5. “Rocket and Feather” Pricing

There’s a well-documented phenomenon in fuel retail known as “rocket and feather” pricing – prices rocket up quickly when costs rise, but float down like a feather when costs fall.

The Competition and Markets Authority has been investigating whether UK fuel retailers engage in this practice. Critics argue that some retailers are slower to pass on savings than they should be, boosting their margins during the transition period.

What Can Drivers Expect?

Williams offered a cautious outlook: “The best hope in the short term is that pump prices stop rising at the rate they have been and hopefully top out in the coming days.”

In practical terms:

• Immediate term (days): Prices may stabilise or slow their rate of increase
• Short term (1-2 weeks): If the ceasefire holds and oil remains lower, prices may begin to edge down
• Medium term (weeks to months): Sustained lower oil prices could see meaningful reductions at the pump

However, any escalation in the conflict could reverse progress immediately.

Which Stations Might Cut Prices First?

Williams noted: “Some smaller independent forecourts buying on a ‘spot’ basis may be quicker to pass on any reductions.”

Large supermarket chains and branded forecourts typically buy fuel on longer-term contracts, meaning their prices are slower to adjust. Smaller independents who purchase fuel more frequently at current market rates may reflect price drops sooner.

This means shopping around becomes even more important during transitional periods. Price differences between stations can widen significantly as some cut prices while others lag behind.

How to Find the Best Prices Now

With prices at record highs and likely to remain elevated for some time, finding the cheapest fuel near you is essential:

Check prices before every fill-up – Use CheckFuelPrices to compare stations in your area. Price differences of 20p+ per litre are common.

Look beyond the big names – Independent forecourts may pass on savings faster than supermarkets and major brands.

Monitor prices over time – As costs potentially stabilise, early movers will cut prices first. Regular checking helps you spot the deals.

Consider timing – If prices are falling, waiting a few days to fill up could save money. If prices are rising, fill up sooner rather than later.

The Bottom Line

Fuel prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather. Even with oil prices dropping following the ceasefire announcement, drivers shouldn’t expect immediate relief at the pumps.

The key factors to watch:

• Whether the ceasefire holds
• How quickly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises
• Whether oil prices remain sustainably lower for several weeks
• How quickly retailers pass on wholesale savings

In the meantime, keep shopping around. Use CheckFuelPrices to find the cheapest fuel near you – because even as average prices remain high, the best-priced stations could save you £10-15 per tank.

We’ll continue tracking prices daily and report as soon as meaningful reductions appear at the pumps.

With diesel now averaging 184.2p per litre and petrol at 153.7p, the AA is urging drivers to reduce their speed by 10% to improve fuel efficiency and cut costs.

The advice comes as motorists have paid an additional £583 million for fuel since the Middle East conflict began – £439 million on diesel and £144 million on petrol.

The 10% Speed Reduction

AA president Edmund King said: “It is well worth drivers adapting their driving style and speed both to save money and enhance safety.”

Reducing your speed by 10% – for example, driving at 63mph instead of 70mph on motorways – significantly improves fuel efficiency while still keeping up with traffic flow.

The AA estimates that diesel drivers can save up to £10 per tank simply by changing their driving style. At current prices, that’s a saving of more than £500 per year for weekly fill-ups.

Fuel-Saving Driving Techniques

Beyond slowing down, there are several proven techniques to make every tank go further:

Anticipate the road ahead
Look ahead for traffic lights, roundabouts and changing traffic flow. Avoid continuous harsh braking by easing off the accelerator early. Smooth deceleration uses far less fuel than braking hard at the last moment.

Accelerate gently
Harsh acceleration burns fuel rapidly. Pull away smoothly and change up through the gears as early as possible without labouring the engine.

Maintain steady speeds
Constant speed changes waste fuel. On motorways, use cruise control where safe to maintain a consistent pace.

Check your tyre pressures
Under-inflated tyres increase rolling resistance and fuel consumption. Check pressures at least monthly and before long journeys. Correct pressures can improve fuel economy by up to 3%.

Remove unnecessary weight
Clear out your boot. Every extra 50kg increases fuel consumption by around 2%. Roof boxes and bike racks create drag – remove them when not in use.

Turn off the engine when stationary
If you’re stopped for more than a minute, switch off. Modern cars don’t need to idle to warm up.

Use air conditioning sparingly
Air con can increase fuel consumption by up to 10% in stop-start urban driving. At higher speeds, it’s more efficient than opening windows, but use it judiciously.

Plan your journeys
Combine trips where possible. A warm engine is more efficient than a cold one, so multiple short trips use more fuel than one longer journey covering the same distance.

The Speed and Fuel Economy Relationship

Fuel consumption increases significantly at higher speeds due to air resistance:

• Driving at 70mph uses up to 9% more fuel than 60mph
• Driving at 70mph uses up to 15% more fuel than 50mph
• Driving at 80mph uses up to 25% more fuel than 70mph

At current diesel prices of 184.2p per litre, a 10% improvement in fuel economy on a 50-litre tank saves approximately £9.20 per fill-up – or £478 per year for weekly fill-ups.

How Much Could You Save?

Change	Potential Saving	Annual Saving (weekly fill-ups)
10% speed reduction	Up to £10 per tank	£520
Correct tyre pressures	Up to 3% improvement	£138
Removing roof box	Up to 10% improvement	£460
Smoother driving style	Up to 15% improvement	£690
Shopping around for prices	Up to £15 per tank	£780

Combined, these changes could save diesel drivers well over £1,000 per year at current prices.

Where Prices Stand Now

According to the latest RAC data:

• Diesel: 184.2p per litre – up 29% since February 28
• Petrol: 153.7p per litre – up 16% since February 28

A 50-litre tank now costs:

• Petrol: £76.85
• Diesel: £92.10

The RAC Foundation estimates that price rises since the conflict began have cost UK motorists an additional £583 million in total.

Shop Around – Price Gaps Are Huge

Edmund King also advised drivers to use fuel price comparison tools, warning that “often there are price discrepancies up to 19p per litre within short distances.”

At 19p per litre difference, that’s £9.50 saved on a 50-litre tank just by choosing the right station.

Use CheckFuelPrices to compare prices at stations near you. Our data comes directly from the government’s Fuel Finder Scheme – the same database all UK forecourts are required to report to within 30 minutes of any price change.

The Bottom Line

With fuel at crisis-level prices, every litre counts. A combination of driving more efficiently and shopping around for the best prices could save you over £1,000 per year.

Key actions:

• Reduce your speed by 10%
• Anticipate the road ahead and brake smoothly
• Check tyre pressures regularly
• Remove unnecessary weight and drag
• Check CheckFuelPrices before every fill-up

Small changes add up to significant savings – especially when diesel is approaching £1 per litre.

The government has contingency plans in place for petrol and diesel rationing that could be activated if the Middle East crisis continues to disrupt supplies. A Treasury minister this week refused to rule out the prospect of fuel rationing amid the ongoing conflict.

Here’s what we know about how rationing would work, who would get priority access, and what it would mean for everyday drivers.

The National Emergency Plan for Fuel

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has a detailed plan setting out how fuel rationing would work if introduced. The National Emergency Plan for Fuel outlines measures that can be activated during severe supply disruptions.

The document states: “The majority of potential fuel supply disruptions can be addressed by measures to help industry maintain fuel supply; these would be deployed by DESNZ in co-ordination with industry and other government departments.”

However, it adds: “The government does have emergency powers under the Energy Act 1976, which it can use to control supply and demand of petroleum products. It should be noted that use of these emergency powers is reserved for the most severe of disruptions.”

Who Gets Priority Access to Fuel?

The National Emergency Plan for Fuel sets out a clear hierarchy for fuel access if rationing is introduced:

1. Emergency services and critical service vehicles
Police, fire, ambulance and other emergency responders would take precedence over all other motorists.

2. Utility providers
Gas, electricity and water companies would be next in priority to ensure essential services continue operating.

3. Public transport
Buses and diesel trains would receive priority access to keep people moving.

4. Commercial vehicles
Lorries delivering food to supermarkets and transporting health-related supplies would be prioritised.

5. Everyday drivers
Private motorists would be last in the queue and could face restrictions on how much fuel they can buy.

What Restrictions Could Drivers Face?

If rationing is activated, everyday drivers could face several restrictions:

• Purchase limits – Restrictions on how much petrol or diesel you can buy in one visit
• Reduced opening hours – Petrol stations may operate shorter hours to manage supply
• Designated filling days – In severe scenarios, drivers might only be able to fill up on certain days
• Essential use only – Guidance to limit driving to essential journeys

Where Prices Stand Now

Pump prices have climbed sharply since the conflict began on February 28:

• Petrol: 144.16p per litre – up 12.45p in four weeks
• Diesel: 166.88p per litre – up 25.42p in four weeks

Both fuels are now at their highest levels since the 2022 energy crisis. Year-on-year, petrol is 8.6p more expensive than March 2025, while diesel is a staggering 23.8p higher.

Why Is This Happening?

The Strait of Hormuz – through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows – has been severely disrupted by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.

Shipping analysts suggest that even with military escorts, oil flows through the strait might only recover to 8-10% of normal levels. If the situation persists, supply shortages become increasingly likely.

Has Rationing Happened Before?

The UK has implemented fuel rationing during previous crises:

• 1973-74 oil crisis – Ration books were printed (though never used) during the Arab oil embargo
• 2000 fuel protests – Panic buying led to widespread shortages, though formal rationing wasn’t introduced
• 2021 supply crisis – Many forecourts implemented voluntary purchase limits during the HGV driver shortage

What Should Drivers Do Now?

There is currently no fuel shortage at UK forecourts, and rationing has not been activated. However, with prices at crisis levels and supply uncertainty ahead:

Don’t panic buy – Rushing to fill up creates the very shortages everyone fears. If you have half a tank, you don’t need to queue today. Panic buying in 2021 caused widespread shortages despite there being no actual supply problem.

Fill up as normal – Stick to your usual routine. Tanker deliveries are continuing.

Shop around for prices – With price variations of up to 50p per litre between forecourts, checking CheckFuelPrices before filling up could save you £15-25 per tank.

Check fuel availability – Use our crowdsourced availability reports to see which stations near you have fuel in stock.

Drive efficiently – Make every tank go further by driving smoothly, checking tyre pressures, and cutting non-essential trips.

Plan ahead – If you rely on your car for work or essential travel, keep your tank reasonably full rather than running it down to empty.

How Would You Know If Rationing Starts?

If the government activates emergency powers, it would be announced officially and widely reported. Measures would likely be phased in gradually rather than introduced overnight.

Initial steps might include:

• Priority lanes at forecourts for emergency and essential vehicles
• Voluntary purchase limits requested by retailers
• Guidance to reduce non-essential travel

More severe measures – such as mandatory purchase limits or reduced station hours – would only follow if the situation deteriorated further.

Stay Informed

We’ll continue monitoring the situation and updating prices daily. Bookmark CheckFuelPrices for the latest prices and availability reports in your area.

If rationing measures are introduced, we’ll provide full details on how they affect drivers and where to find fuel.

With petrol now at 143.73p per litre and diesel at 164.82p, drivers are paying more at the pumps than at any point in the past 20 months. But where does that money actually go?

Understanding what makes up the price of fuel can help you see why prices spike during global crises – and why they don’t always fall as quickly as you’d expect.

The Fuel Price Breakdown

At least 50% of what you pay per litre goes straight to the government in tax. The rest covers the actual cost of fuel, delivery, and retailer margins.

Here’s how it breaks down:

Petrol (at 140.28p per litre)

• Wholesale fuel cost: 63.95p (46%)
• Fuel duty: 52.95p (38%)
• VAT at 20%: 23.38p (17%)

Diesel (at 158.78p per litre)

• Wholesale fuel cost: 79.37p (50%)
• Fuel duty: 52.95p (33%)
• VAT at 20%: 26.46p (17%)

The wholesale cost also includes retailer margins, delivery and distribution costs, and bio-content – the cost of making fuel more environmentally friendly.

Fuel Duty: The Fixed Tax

Fuel duty is a flat tax of 52.95p on every litre of petrol and diesel sold in the UK. It doesn’t change based on the price of oil – whether crude is at $50 or $100 a barrel, fuel duty remains the same.

This includes a temporary 5p cut introduced in March 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, which has been extended several times since.

At the current rate, fuel duty generates around £24 billion per year for the government – equivalent to approximately £835 per household.

The 5p Cut Is Being Reversed

The temporary 5p fuel duty cut is being phased out over the next year:

• August 2026: Duty rises 1p to 53.95p per litre
• December 2026: Duty rises another 2p to 55.95p per litre
• March 2027: Final 2p increase to 57.95p per litre

By March 2027, fuel duty will be back to its pre-2022 level of 57.95p per litre. Combined with current wholesale prices, this could push petrol towards 150p and diesel past 170p – before any further oil price increases.

Motoring groups have urged the Chancellor to delay these increases given the current crisis. AA president Edmund King said: “We strongly encourage the chancellor to delay the staggered reintroduction of the 5p fuel duty discount in order to offer some breathing space for hard-pressed households.”

VAT: The Tax on Top of Tax

VAT is charged at 20% on the total price – including the fuel duty. This means you’re effectively paying tax on tax.

At current prices:

• Petrol VAT: 23.38p per litre
• Diesel VAT: 26.46p per litre

When fuel prices rise, the government takes more in VAT. A 10p increase in the base price adds 2p in VAT on top.

Wholesale Costs: Where the Volatility Comes From

The wholesale cost of fuel – the price before tax – is where all the volatility sits. This is driven by:

Global oil prices – Brent crude, the international benchmark, has surged above $100 a barrel due to the Middle East conflict. When oil prices spike, wholesale fuel costs follow.

Refining costs – Crude oil must be refined into petrol and diesel. Refinery capacity, maintenance schedules, and regional demand all affect this cost.

Exchange rates – Oil is priced in US dollars. When the pound weakens against the dollar, fuel becomes more expensive for UK buyers.

Supply disruptions – The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, has severely impacted supply chains and pushed wholesale costs sharply higher.

Why Diesel Costs More Than Petrol

Diesel is currently 18.5p per litre more expensive than petrol. This gap has nearly doubled in the past month.

The reasons:

Higher wholesale costs – Diesel’s pre-tax cost is 79.37p compared to petrol’s 63.95p. Diesel requires more intensive refining and is in higher demand globally for freight and shipping.

Supply chain exposure – Europe imports a significant portion of its diesel. Disruptions to Middle Eastern supply hit diesel harder than petrol.

Heating demand – Diesel and heating oil are similar products. Winter demand for heating can push diesel prices higher.

Retailer Margins: The Controversial Slice

The amount retailers make on each litre sold has come under scrutiny. The Competition and Markets Authority has warned that fuel margins remain “persistently high” compared to historic levels – and that this cannot be explained by retailers’ operating costs.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves accused some retailers of “price gouging” after prices at some forecourts hit nearly 180p per litre while others charged less than 130p.

This 50p variation shows why shopping around matters. Use CheckFuelPrices to compare prices at stations near you and avoid paying more than necessary.

How Much Goes to the Government?

In total, government taxes account for over half of what you pay at the pump:

• Petrol: 76.33p per litre (54%) goes to the government
• Diesel: 79.41p per litre (50%) goes to the government

On a 50-litre tank:

• Petrol: £38.17 in tax
• Diesel: £39.71 in tax

Fuel duty alone brings in around £24 billion per year, rising to a projected £26.2 billion by 2027/28 as the 5p cut is reversed.

Why Prices Rise Faster Than They Fall

Drivers often notice that pump prices shoot up when oil prices rise, but seem to fall more slowly when oil prices drop. This phenomenon is known as “rocket and feather” pricing.

The CMA is investigating whether fuel retailers are engaging in this practice – raising prices quickly in response to cost increases but reducing them slowly to boost profits.

This is another reason why checking prices matters. During volatile periods, some retailers raise prices faster than others. Finding the stations that haven’t yet increased can save you significant money.

What Can Drivers Do?

You can’t control oil prices, fuel duty, or VAT. But you can control where you fill up and how you drive.

Shop around – Price differences of 20-50p per litre mean potential savings of £10-25 per tank. Check CheckFuelPrices before every fill-up.

Drive efficiently – Smooth acceleration, proper tyre pressures, and steady speeds can cut consumption by up to 30%.

Cut non-essential trips – With prices this high, every unnecessary journey costs money.

Use supermarkets – Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons typically offer the cheapest fuel. Compare prices by brand to find the best value near you.

The Bottom Line

More than half of what you pay at the pump goes to the government in tax. The rest covers wholesale fuel costs, delivery, and retailer margins.

When oil prices spike – as they have during the current Middle East conflict – wholesale costs surge, VAT increases proportionally, and prices at the pump follow. With fuel duty increases also scheduled for later this year, drivers face a challenging few months ahead.

The one thing within your control is where you buy. Check prices, shop around, and don’t pay more than you have to.